SC Testing Data & Projections (COVID-19)

Thursday, June 4, 2020, 3:15 pm 
 

This page will be updated regularly as information becomes available. 

Testing

DHEC's Public Health Laboratory receives samples from healthcare providers to be tested for COVID-19. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved some private labs to also conduct testing for COVID-19. These labs are required to report positive tests for the virus in South Carolina residents to DHEC. Numerical, graphic and mapping summaries regarding testing and the number of observed and projected cases in South Carolina are shown below. Additional details concerning the distribution of cases can be found on the pages showing cases by county & ZIP code and demographic data.

 

 

COVID-19 Testing in South Carolina

Negative tests from DHEC Public Health Laboratory 39,690
Negative tests from private laboratories 178,156
Total negative tests 217,846*
Positive tests from DHEC Public Health Laboratory 4,385
Positive tests from private laboratories 16,577
Total positive tests 20,962**
Total number of tests performed in South Carolina 238,808

*Total negative tests is the cumulative number of all tests without positive results. This total includes individuals who may have been tested once and individuals who have been tested multiple times. 

**Total positive tests is different than the total number of positive cases in the state. The number of cases is the number of individuals who have tested positive for COVID-19 at least once. Some of those individuals have been tested multiple times for various reasons, and the total positive tests captures all of the positive tests results in the state. One positive case may have been tested multiple times, with potentially multiple positive results.

 

COVID-19 cases, by day by the date symptoms first were reported

This chart shows case counts according to dates of illness onset – when patients began having disease symptoms -- rather than according to the subsequent dates when positive laboratory reports were submitted to DHEC.

Cases with a known illness onset date are shown in blue. If that date is not known, the date the person’s sample was collected for testing is used instead and is shown in gray. The green box represents daily case counts that are expected to change because additional data for those cases are currently being collected and reviewed. These data are thus provisional and subject to change.

The data below is updated every Tuesday and Friday afternoon.

Epi Curve of Positive Cases

 

 

Positive Cases Indicated by Heat Map

The 14-day Heat Map displays the most recent reported cases during the past 14-day period and estimates where the current burden is due to recently reported cases.

COVID-19 14-Day Rolling Heat Map - May 21 to June 4, 2020

 

The heat map indicates reported cases of COVID-19 in the state. Regardless of the number of reported cases within an area, all South Carolinians should take seriously the recommended precautions for protecting against this disease. The cumulative Heat Map shows all historic reported cases of COVID-19.

COVID-19 Rolling Heat Map - March 4 - June 4, 2020

 


 

Percent Positive Trends Among Reported COVID-19 Cases

Last updated June 4, 2020

As South Carolina increases testing, there will likely be more laboratory-confirmed cases. The percent positive graphs show trends in the percent of cases of COVID-19 relative to the number of tests performed during the last 28 and 14 days, respectively. The percent positive is the number of individual people that tested positive (361 as of June 3) divided by the number of individuals tested (6,588 as of June 3) by both DHEC’s laboratory and private laboratories, then multiplied by 100 (5.5% for June 3).

When the percent positive is high, it may indicate that there isn't enough testing being performed to capture how much disease is in the community and testing may be focused on people who are more severely ill.

When the percent positive is low, it may indicate that more widespread testing is being performed and the percent positive may more accurately reflect how much disease is present in the community.

COVID-19 14 Day Percent Positive - 06.04.2020

 

COVID-19 28 Day Percent Positive - 06.04.2020

 

Summary of Case Reports through March 1 and Projections through June 13

Last updated June 1, 2020

Table 1 presents numbers of COVID-19 cases observed in the ‘Sunday through Saturday’ weeks since March 1 as well as projections of COVID-19 cases through to the week of June 14 – June 20.

For each week, data are presented regarding the number of new cases, the overall number of cases up to that time, the case rate per 100,000 persons up to that point, and an indication regarding whether the numbers were observed (i.e. confirmed cases reported to DHEC) or have been projected.

Table 1
Observed and Projected SC COVID-19 Cases by Week: March 1 to June 20

COVID19_projection_table1-6.1.20

 

Table 2 below provides additional perspectives on the projected case rate of 325 per 100,000 in SC on June 20, by comparing it to case rates already observed as of May 30 in those states that have suffered the greatest burden of COVID-19.

Table 2
Comparing South Carolina’s Projected COVID-19 Case Rate per 100,000 to Rates Already Observed as of May 30 by Selected Severely Impacted States

COVID19_projection_table2-6.1.20


Additional Notes and Explanations

  1. DHEC reports laboratory-confirmed cases so that the number of positive tests reported for a particular day is considered to be the number of new cases for that day. However, laboratories are not always able to process and test the samples they receive on the same day they get them. This can relate to the time of day when some samples reach them, and occasionally also to temporary shortages of chemicals needed to perform the tests.
  2. Regarding table 2 it is also important to note that uncertainties exist regarding projections made for the coming weeks. For example, since not all persons who are infected are tested, the number of officially reported cases is not identical to the actual number of cases in the population.
  3. The modeling and projections shown below come from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), which offers one of the most commonly used models. Predictions made by different models may typically differ as each may depend on slightly different assumptions and use of data. Though the predictions regarding future weeks and months do not match perfectly, they generally provide helpful perspectives regarding the future course of the pandemic.
     

COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020


 

 

 

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